Gold Coast Property Market 2027:Boom, Crash or Buying Opportunity?

Parag Dixit

Voice me.

Speaker 1

All right.

Parag Dixit

Hi, Julius. How are you? I'm good. How you? I'm very, very good, Julius. I'm very excited for today. We are going to discuss about one of the locations which I love. I really love Gold Coast, and Gold Coast Market has been amazing. It is. I think it's it's it's a brilliant market. It's one of the markets which I think everyone has in their top list. It's been the most talked about and the standout property performer in all these years. It's one of the best markets. I think over the last five years, investors have really seen how property prices have surged. You know, interstate buyers have come in there. This rental demand has really, really gone up, and all those previously affordable suburbs have now become million-dollar suburbs there. But in 2026, now we all know last few months with all those changes, this market is shifting. Those quarterly houses and unit values are now going down. Even as you know, the obviously the annual figures look positive, but the listings are rising in a lot of pockets, and the gap between demands and the and the risk is widening a lot. Whether it's houses, whether it's apartments, and today let's let's unpack what's happening there. What are the numbers really telling us? And let's try and get an answer whether prices will fall further, or there is a let's let's let's maybe take a breakdown of where smart investors should look at and where are those traps which are getting getting stuck today. Because today the most important question for today is that is the boom with cold coast property finally running out of steam, and if the Gold Coast properties are now softening, can 2027 bring a even bigger correction out there, or will the changing market conditions create a new opportunity for investors heading into 2027? You know, most investors and owner occupiers believe you can never write off the Gold Coast market. It has risen stronger and stronger and stronger in the past, despite all the challenges it has had. And if that's true, let's see what this mark makes this market so resilient and powerful. In the end, we will answer: If you are buying an investment property on the Gold Coast today, or an owner-occupied property on Gold Coast today, what would you prioritize? Location, the property type, the rental returns, or buying below the market value? And that's important for us to understand. And today, before we before we jump into all of this, maybe I'll ask you a quick one. What made Golco such a popular location to invest into?

Julius

Yeah, so it started from COVID.

Parag Dixit

Yeah,

Julius

lot of investors, owner-occupiers, and what we have seen is basically a lot of people have moved. Net internal migration was pretty higher. A lot of people moved out of Sydney and Melbourne, and then situated in Gold Coast, so that creates the additional demand. Plus, when we see in Gold Coast, it's a good lifestyle location, so there are a lot of downsizers as well. Plus, there's good population movement, and in Gold Coast, we had seen there are a lot of good infrastructure projects which were happening. So all that combines with the population growth, infrastructure demand, very very limited supply, and then high demand, which has been created during the COVID, it creates that market into a million dollar market.

Parag Dixit

Absolutely right, and I think Gold Coast has taken the benefit of all of these, which have happened, right? Yeah, and it's it's it's it's been a it's it's been a darling of a market for a lot of long long long period of time, correct?

Julius

Exactly. So, I'll give you a snapshot of current market. So today we'll discuss a little bit about our own prop wealth buyer index as well and demand index. Yeah. So current median prices in Gold Coast are very close to $1.4 million. When you look at the this quarter's price movement, it's little below minus 1% That means the movement is not very strong, like yeah, yeah. But when you look at the annual price movement, it's more than 1%

Parag Dixit

Okay, okay.

Julius

When you look at the median house prices, are very close to 1.6 million. All right. Their properties which are selling in three to 4 million in the premium suburbs. Their properties when you go towards the outer suburbs of the till they are holding a property values of $1 million.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, yeah.

Julius

So when you look at the quarterly house prices movement, more than three and half percent.

Julius

And then when you cumulate that and look at the entire annuals house prices movement; it's more than 5%

Parag Dixit

Wow!

Julius

Also, median ask is asking rent in houses are close to 1050 versus in unit, because you have a higher concentration of unit towards the premium suburbs or where you have the suffer paradise and all those activities where the unit unit rentings are very close to 11 and. Dollars per week,

Parag Dixit

yeah, absolutely. When

Julius

you look at the vacancy rates,

Parag Dixit

yes,

Julius

they are slightly risen, but they are still below 2%

Parag Dixit

Yeah, I think no. What so what you what you're trying to explain to us? You know, I I can get what from you saying that Gold Coast market is still experiencing a bit of a slowness now. Correct. There is it's it's high, and I think maybe it's also because it's been years and years of a strong demand which has been there, but maybe this is the time where after these tax law changes and after all that, what's happening and it's all known to everyone, there is a bit of a reset of it because it also has a lot of owner occupiers going there, but also has a lot of investors going there as well. It's a uniform appeal across all the segments, so it's becoming a buyers are obviously a bit more cautious, and that comes into even the days on market there because properties are now taking about 90 days to sell versus what it used to take about say 4550 days to sell and an average. So that's increased a bit, and I think it eventually the borrowing capacity and the interest rates-they're all influencing how people are thinking. If I don't have a borrowing capacity, or if I'm thinking, okay, I'm not getting a tax benefit, it's a fantastic market. I want to be there. I'm getting capital growth. I'm getting rental values. I'm getting rental yields out there. Of all the major cities, it has a phenomenal rental yield out there as well. But if I'm thinking, okay, my borrowing capacity is getting impacted. It's a million plus kind of a market where I'm buying an apartment or a house. So if I'm looking at that, then I need to be really sure of whether how it's going to be treated in the future, whether I'll be able to afford to buy something or I'll not be able to afford to buy something. Can I hold that? Is it a sustainable investment? And is it something which I should look at buying a house or a townhouse in an apartment, which will do good for me, because I'm not too sure what's happening. And this is this is a classic thing which comes to my mind that is is is this a property market which can experience strong annual growth despite or maybe while showing a short term weakness? Is it going to still have continuity or is it going to just stay there? And that's an important bit which comes to my mind at all point of time as a buyer. That okay, I am looking at only you know annual capital growth figures, but then it also hides a lot of stuff. The sentiment which are going on, the things which are going on in the market, and how people are thinking. And when people are thinking about all of these things, it you always start thinking. Okay, is there going to be more demand, or is there going to be less supply, or what is it going to be there? Right.

Julius

So there are different parameters from demand side as well as supply side, but both are working in conjunction. So when you look at the demand side, higher population growth versus they have good population growth plus they have good net internal migration that creates additional demand. Then there are a lot of owner-occupied demand, so there is a lot of permanent residential demand into that market. Third is basically a lot of infrastructure demand, which says okay, good amount of infrastructure projects are in in making. So that is also creating a good demand, strongest employment growth, lots of lifestyle appeal, and then lot of buyer demand from retirees and downsizers. And when you look for the supply side, land supply is extremely poor. Yeah, like when you go towards the inner CBD suburbs of the Gold Coast. Yeah, we'll talk about the suburbs in in next part. But then over there there is a there is a very very poor availability of the land supply. That is number one. The second is basically delayed in construction. Yeah, construction cost is way higher than Sydney and Melbourne and Brisbane. Very limited availability of the established home versus there is a higher demand for the established homes.

Parag Dixit

Yeah,

Julius

and there is a low stock of the houses versus they are higher availability of the apartments.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, so these these are I think these are factors which are keeping on pulling each other from both the sides. And if the demand side is not really is is even if it's median or it's it's neutral, but the supply side is not keeping up, and there is a huge demand. This there's a good amount of demand which is there, and I think I think we should you should talk about the demand bit, and I I would love to pick your brain on understanding what's the kind of demand looking like there. But if the supply is not catching up, and even if you are neutral on demand, it's always been very high. But even if neutral on demand, then you are in in trouble. But when I when I'm looking at all of these things, you know, what do I? It always comes to my mind that will the Gold Coast property market continue to fall in 2026, or are we going to see a beginning of a market correction in 2026 right now and continuing into 2027? Because when I look at all of these markets, you know, we have to. I have to start thinking. Okay, over these last five years, you know, it's all good. It's risen by 65% You know, house prices are risen by 80% and apartments have risen by some 40-50% 45, 50% or something. But it's all been supported by population. It's all been supported by the income in the household. Which has grown there, but it's still not keeping kept pace with it. The property prices have risen much faster than what my household income has grown. And when, if the household income is not going to continue to grow, there will be a glass ceiling which is going to come in, and that ceiling is going to impact my property prices. So it it may be that at this point of time, you may find that okay, the current property prices are not really unaffordable, so it's not become unaffordable for local buyers. But there will be a time which is going to come in. It's a luxury market. It's a niche market. It's a choice market. It's a premium market. It's somewhere where I want to buy. An interstate investor is willing to pay all that price, willing to pay a premium. A local market, local guy is willing to pay a premium for the Gold Coast market, but eventually, if the if the buyer demand is going to keep on becoming weaker, and if the affordability is going to keep on going down, it will start impacting the demand and the demand index, right? But

Julius

not across the entire Gold Coast. So, we can discuss more about data, and we do have our own matrixes called prop wealth average demand index. So we calculate across all the demand indexes and we cumulate. At this stage, Gold Coast is sitting at more than 221, which is very good in our numbers terms in our data matrix. When you look at the entire quarters movement, it's still positive 1%

Julius

to other states or other councils, when we discuss about other councils, they are in negative. But Gorkus is still into positive. That means still there is a demand. Yeah, but it's a scattered demand. So when you look for that by our demand index between from August 2025 till now, it's around plus 41.6%

Parag Dixit

All right. Okay. Yeah.

Julius

So, but when you look at the location, like it's in minus. That means the demand is been softened. It's minus 29% out of that 221.6. Southport is reduced by more than 13% But when you look at the Broadbridge, Burnley, Suffer Paradise, Rabina, Omera, Gold Coast, Interland, ranging between 26% till around 15% so they still have a higher demand.

Parag Dixit

All right, okay, okay. But I see, I know what you're saying, and I can understand there's a demand. Correct. But when when when the then the days on market keep on increasing, yes, correct. And the inventory is keeping on increasing. It's giving us as a buyer a bit of a purchasing power, right? It gives you an option that you're able to do that. And if the median house prices are already above 1.4 million in in gold cost, then how much further can these prices grow without a corresponding increase in the household income and the borrowing capacity? It's a it's a big one because see, when I look at when I still let's say if I want to compare this with the neighboring Brisbane market, Brisbane is the capital city, right? If I look at Brisbane market, then it's a very different thing out there. In in Brisbane, though, it it's traditionally had Gold Coast has traditionally had always had a higher demand there. Correct. You know, quarterly movement. They may still say that Gold Coast still has a positive positive quarterly movement, whereas Brisbane is already into negative territory for all of the last quarter, right? Right. When you're looking at over in cumulative bit, obviously Brisbane has taken a bit of a is bit a bit ahead with about 45% versus 40 41% but still, Gold Coast's current demand index is still about 6% higher than even Brisbane index, yes, and that's a strong indicator. If if I am saying that okay, over Brisbane, if there is a house, it commands a good 60% premium over a Brisbane median price. With a one 1 million Brisbane median price, we're looking at a 1.6 million houses having median prices, which is very, very, very strong. Yeah, a huge premium for what we are getting in Gold Coast, and it's a brilliant area to live in. I'm not saying otherwise, but these are all very, very strong indicators for what it is today. Apartments-they are about 15% premium about what prices are there in Brisbane. If you just compare from there, now when when I look at all of these things, it comes to my mind. So, what what do you think can be some three the the way we can think of what what are some three scenarios or some scenarios which can work out for Gold Coast in the coming year?

Julius

Okay, so in 2027, it depends on how the entire market activities will go in terms of the inflation, in terms of the buyer sensitivity and demand. But still, we can work on three different scenarios. So scenario number one is a renewed growth, where if the conditions are like basically if they have a strong migration, if the interest rates are starting to drop, and then if borrowing capacity has been changed, and still there is a constraint of housing supply, then then I believe there will be a good purchase window, and then we can see the market is still moving.

Julius

there'll be another scenario would be a consolidation of the market where demand is stable. They still they have an affordability, but affordability is constrained because interest rates are not moving, inflation is still higher.

Julius

And sales activity is softening.

Parag Dixit

All right.

Julius

Yeah, in that case, we can see lot of opportunities where you can negotiate on your terms, and you can buy good properties.

Julius

And there will be another very negative scenario, which is a further correction.

Julius

That's because it might be because of the very weak demand. Yeah. Inflation is higher. Yeah. The fuel prices are still the similar. You know, then interest rates are still sticky and buy sentiments all time low. Yeah. In that case, and in a case if suppose there are few areas surrounding the Gold Coast where we can see there will be more supply coming up. Yeah. Suddenly, if you see okay, the supply is more coming up. Then yes. Then then what we need to look out for is basically comparable sales, and then potentially there'll be a further price movement, like declining into the price movement. That's why we have to be very, very cash flow resilience. Yeah,

Parag Dixit

yeah.

Julius

So that means would a 5% decline in the property prices necessarily make the Gold Coast a better investment market, or would we first need to understand what caused decline?

Parag Dixit

Yeah, absolutely right. And this is just this market which has caused the decline or something, then we are then it may or may not be that bad. But if there are other factors which is driving Gold Coast to move to a different thing, which is going to be a very different thing, it's going to be a different market altogether. And that's what we have to see: that are these changing markets really creating an opportunity for investors or owner-occupiers, or as an investor, should I say that okay, I just want to wait for a little bit more to see whether it's you know before it's going to fall more and then I enter the market or not? And this is always a question which I would love to you know understand. What do you think on this? What what would what should I play? How do I play this market right now.

Julius

It's always depend on where you find opportunity versus how you find that opportunity. So there are properties which are distressed when you compare the property prices versus, for an example, two quarters ago and now, then we need to look at the comparables and see basically whether the market is softening. Yeah, and all the listings which are available in the market, if they are in the market for a longer time and still they are not withdrawing, then probably it's a distress sale where you can do a more about you know negotiation and you can avail that. You can still look at the good off-market communication channels with the agents and see where is the distress sale happening. Yeah,

Parag Dixit

yeah.

Julius

Identifying when you are buying a property, a cheap property, doesn't mean that it's always a good property. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So we have to look at the properties where okay, there is a good demand, there is a good underlying demand into that particular summer for that property, and then you are buying in the right location with the right price. Because sometimes, yes, if you find good property, doesn't mean that it is going to be a best property for your future growth. So that's why we have to get into a market where okay, yes, there is a good demand. All the market fundamentals are better, and then you are getting a good property at at that negotiated rate. At that negotiated, and I think that's a good point because when you are

Parag Dixit

looking at the market and when you are trying to see properties in the market, you will always find there may be some vendors which are motivated to sell, people who are sellers who are motivated to sell, or there is a good negotiating power which you have because the property has been in the market for some time and the lender want to sell, and you are able to negotiate well. So these kind of slower markets allow you to have that that bit of a flexibility of being able to jump in and get value out there, right?

Julius

Yeah, that's correct. So basically, what we have seen in this market is those were selling either distress or they have to sell because of the other commitment.

Julius

So whatever value we were seeing from around two to three to four months ago, now there is in dollar terms there are a lot of property which are selling around 100 to 150,000 below market price, but not all the properties. So, if suppose if I've selected one suburb, where I know demand and supply is lot of get, where I know the property market was always there, affordability is there, income is good, social economy is better, and if I'm able to crack that deal for around in dollar terms around below 100 250,000 below market price, that's property to go for.

Parag Dixit

That's property to market. So, and a lot of times investors also start thinking, okay, should I wait or should I go on? And so, what should what what would you do in this kind of a market? What what could think of having an action plan on that?

Julius

Yeah. So waiting is so we can't find the right time to buy a property, but this is a market where okay, we are not building more homes, and then as we say in Gold Coast, there are suburbs where underlying there is lot of supply issues.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, there

Julius

are a lot of suburbs which are carrying strong fundamentals versus there is good income with good buying affordability.

Julius

So if you are ready with your borrowing capacity, if you're ready with your finances, then this is the best time to get in because you can negotiate now.

Parag Dixit

Yeah,

Julius

these are the markets where okay, when the markets are corrected or when there the good sentiments within the buyers, you will not have that negotiation power.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, absolutely correct. No, you you are right, and I think this always brings it into my mind that till you are able to calculate your holding capacity, till you are able to say okay, my borrowing power definitely allows me to buy the. And then I can handle the cash flow, positive or negative, which is going to come through. Then I'm I'm fine with it, and I think I'm getting a good value property in Gold Coast. And because the Gold Coast demand comes from a lot of other areas, it's one of the important markets where we found that the it's not it's unlike a Sydney or Brisbane market. It's it has everything there. It has a phenomenal mix. It you have interstate migration which is coming in from Sydney and Melbourne. You have overseas migration which is coming in and they want to stay there. Then you've got professional services which are there, tech guys which are there, construction which is booming. Retirees want to go there. Downsizers want to go there. Young families want to live there. It's a good combination. Even youngsters want to go and live there. It's a phenomenal lifestyle. It's a good employment opportunity, healthcare, education, tourism, amazing tourism, right? So I think the Christmas season is coming upon us. We'll we'll find that there are properties you don't you can't even get on Airbnb for 1000 2000 bucks a night or something. It's a phenomenal overall thing which is happening in in Gold Coast market. And not only that, there are some really good infrastructure stuff which is happening in in the Gold Coast market, which is going to carry 2027 beyond us. There is this Brisbane Olympics which is coming and Paralympics which is coming in there. And Gold Coast is a part of that, and there are some activities happening in Gold Coast as well, and that has a long-term implication on what's going to happen in terms of transport and investment, which the government is doing. Light rail is anyways continuing, and it's now including areas and locations like Mermaid Beach and Miami and League Heads, and and you know the Kumira Connector is doing good. The M1 is doing good. It's really giving you a very nice connectivity between Prispin, Cold Coast, and other suburbs. Kummera, Upper Kummera, all of them are now suddenly booming because of that connectivity coming in. The airport is good. The healthcare, education, all of that which is coming there. But this this makes overall the Cold Coast market very big, but I always found Gold Coast market is is not one market. Yeah, behaves in a different manner. And I think if if I would if I would love to ask you, okay, let's divide Gold Coast into four parts. Okay, let's let's talk of one part by one part. So let's let's say how how do you feel about the Northern Gold Coast market? Okay,

Julius

so when you look towards the northern Gold Coast, it's more affordable, and there is a significant amount of population growth. So suburb like Kumera, Pak Pimpama, Pacific Pines, socioeconomy is mid. Doesn't mean that it's very low, but still in between five to eight depends on where you buy. Relatively affordability compared to the established coastal suburb because it's around 4050 kilometers from Gold Coast, all the major hubs, and then Goku CBD demand for there is a lot of demand for family homes and own houses. Basically, transport infrastructure is good. That and then from there they they actually upgrading the M1 away. Population growth is good. Rental demand from family is good. What we need to look out for is basically surrounding of that there is a good amount of developable land which is coming into the pipeline. So they might have a good amount of supply coming up.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, and that's going to impact the prices and how the prices move in that area. What is the other side? If I look at Central Gold Coast, which is you know, which is more of your good locations like you know Southport and Ashmore and Laprattour and Molinar and even Rubina, then they are phenomenal suburbs, right? Good suburbs where I would want to live in. Good employment, healthcare, education. Good permanent residents live there, and then even owner occupiers want to live there. And I, I love to have an established house in there versus apartment. It's full of apartments, but I would love to be living there. It's, it's pretty affordable versus the coastal suburbs. Very affordable. It's not, it's not in the crazy millions. It's crazy. It's in the affordable millions. So it's you know I can buy an older property, I can renovate it, but I think I think the apartments and the unit market in in Southport and Rubina have kind of a bit of a issue out there. We can because when we look at these these two suburbs, Rabina and Southport, we can always wonder. You know, such a nice suburb having strong employment, infrastructure, rental demand, whereas its apartment market is you know experiencing declines like crazy, and that's because of such a huge supply which is coming in, and that that huge supply brings a big question: that should I really invest into those areas or should I not invest into those areas, and especially in the apartment industry there, right? Yeah, exactly.

Julius

That's why it is bit there. When you look towards the southern part of the coast, then it's more kind of lifestyle demand and established coastal locations like Bunnyheads, Miami, Palm Beach, Tugend. They are very expensive though. Like premium markets. So they all have a coastal lifestyle appeal. Very very. Limited land supply available, and then they are very. They don't have more residential homes basically, so demand for owner occupiers and downsizes is very high. Public transport is improving, like when you look at the light rail and all that is going through this location. But what we need to watch out is basically there is increasing apartment development, and it's an affordability constraint. So basically, if you're an investor and if you're looking for this type of locations, it's highly unaffordable because you'll be spending in between two and $3 million, versus your rental area will be about 2% So over there, there is a huge difference between are you houses and apartment?

Parag Dixit

Yeah, true.

Julius

Yeah,

Parag Dixit

true. And that that difference is not so easy to to to bridge, and when when you look at these look at these, though I will want you to help me get a property there. I would love to have a property there. Yeah, but but you know, as an investor, I always think that I've missed the major growth in these southern Gold Coast suburbs, or or because you know the land supply is limited, and it's a phenomenal lifestyle which you get out there. So will it support the long-term value? It's very important because there is a scarcity of land out there. Of course, scarcity versus affordability. What's really going to drive the growth there is going to be a big, big, big question mark in these places, right? Yes, yes, of course, it's very different to the other suburbs like you know Surface Paradise and Trout Beach and Main Beach and you know all of these Hope Highland they they've got they are the I think the Airbnb capital of Gold Coast this where holiday accommodations are there luxury apartments are there but they're using most mostly for holiday homes by people you know huge supply, huge supply coming in there, and interesting stuff happens in these areas. I think the older apartments compete with the newer ones, which are selling. Yeah, and because of this, every buyer starts thinking that will I should I buy a established apartment in a well maintained building or should I buy a brand new apartment in a large new development, which is coming in, which have all those cookie cutter apartments, just like that. It's just everything is the same. So it brings into your mind. But these are these suburbs which are heavy, heavy, high density suburbs with heavy density apartments coming in. They're still growing in value. It's not that they're not, but they are a very different suburb. But very useful two times as well, and new

Julius

apartments are coming up.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, absolutely correct. And this this is always a question which I always get in mind. But these are such varied areas. These are four parts of Golgo which are so so varied. So at this stage, we are still, despite all of these complexities, we are sitting at about 1000 bucks a week in rent, somebody has to pay there. Now, is Golco's going to still remain an attractive rental market, or you know, as an investor, do I really think that it's it's really reached a ceiling, and I may not be able to afford cash flow positive properties going forward? But what do you how how have you analyzed these markets as well? We

Julius

have certain data factors. Again, I would like to talk about our Prop 12 Demand Index, which is around 135, which is good. But when you look at this quarterly movement, then the demand index has been reduced to minus 14%

Julius

Versus when you compare between August 2025 till now, then entire year it's been grown by more than 19%

Julius

So current vacancy rates are slightly increased, 1.4% but not too much. Six of the eight SA three recorded lower demand over the quarter, and when you look at the strongest demand index, which is around 171, that's in.

Parag Dixit

Ah, all right, okay, yeah. And

Julius

Southport is actually losing the buyer demand. Sorry, rental demand index, which is around 125. So when you when you look at the houses, rent indicators around 1,055 per week versus units are more expensive to rent, which is around 1200, close to 1200.

Parag Dixit

Yeah. Okay. But yes, when you look at all of these things, and what's more interesting, which I always want to understand, in Gold Coast market, if I try and find out, okay, versus a household income, what is the rental expense which I am having in terms of percentage? Anything? I think as a person, and I think as a benchmark, if it starts crossing about 30% of my household income, I start getting a bit wobbly. Yeah. So if I'm looking at that same index, I kind of an income which you need in Gold Coast market with 1000 bucks plus kind of a median rent, I'm looking at about 180,000 plus kind of an income, and that's that's there. I know a lot of a lot of people will have that kind of a household income out there. Not everyone, but a lot of people will have that, and a lot of people are able to afford that. But you know, it's it's it's going to be tricky going forward because as soon as I'm starting to cross that, I am into I'm start getting worried because where will I afford that? How will I. Afford that. If repayments are going to increase, how will I afford that? If I my rent is going to keep on increasing, where will I afford that? And that's why we are saying that there is a slight softening in the rental demand because we are reaching that point. But but it will be very interesting in the future to see whether the population growth, which is still continuing, it's a strong population. Whether that will be able to support the rental demand. Will the all these migration changes, not the overseas migration changes, which the government is doing, tax law changes, which is which is happening, will that change something, or will it will it change between the four regions we have spoken about? Well, whether the north and the central and the southern Gold Coast areas will how will they be reacting differently? It's an important one because if these these ones cater to different set of populations, the southern caters to a different set of population, the high density areas cater to a different set of population, the northern Gold Coast caters to a very different set of population, and all of these populations behave in a very different way. So when when I look at this, if I if I'm seeing overseas investors or holiday makers come more to the high density areas and all of these areas and stay there. So then, so for Paradise and all of these bits or Southport and all of these bits, then they will really get impacted because. And as a tenant, if I'm a permanent tenant, if I'm a holiday maker, then it's fine. I can pay a little bit more and go away after my holiday. But if I'm a permanent tenant, I will always think, okay, now that my apartment houses are costlier and costlier, and it's going to be costing me 1400, 1100, 1300, 1500 to rent, then I'm better off maybe taking an apartment or a townhouse to do that, because these are things which are going to be on my head at all point of time. Because even the supply is coming. I mean, but I I'm not seeing any bit of a benefit which I am getting from there. So so as a tenant, I am worried. When the tenant is worried, I'm also as a landlord worried, right? Because if I'm if I'm buying a property with a higher rental yield, but because of all these factors, and I find that the capital growth is going to get limited. What do I want to do? Do I want to buy a property which is going to be a cash flow positive property, or do I get into a property which is capital growth property? Because if the rents are reaching a point of time and there is a high density of apartments coming in in the area, which is happening in Southport and the Rubin Apartments, then I am saying, okay, it is going to impact my capital growth. My, it's it's it's it's a very classic thing, which is every market goes through, and I think Cold Coast is also going through that. Rental yields are good.

Parag Dixit

Don't take me wrong; rental yields are close to 4% out there, and we compare with the Sydneys, in the Melbournes, in the Brisbanes, and all of these Adelaide as well. All of these markets, 4% is a good market for a for such a premium market. 4% yields is not bad. It's a very good this yield which is coming out there. The price indicators are very good as well. You know, 78% growth in in five years, 45% growth in apartments in five years. But all of these, it's it's very tricky because when when I'm an investor I am trying to say okay let me weigh out what's important for me and goalpost is going to get driven by that weighing out whether immediate cash flow is important for me is that going to tell me okay buy an apartment because that's the yields is coming there, or I am saying, long-term growth is coming for me, and that's most important for me, and that is what I invest for. Then do I get into a houses, and this is going to drive my decision into where I'm going to invest in the future, in the coming year or so, and that is going to tell me what I want to do. And again, another big thing is going to tell me what I'm going to do is what is going to provide net cash flow. If I'm going to buy an apartment, if the startup cost keeps on increasing, I may have to start rethinking that. Okay, my gross rent may be higher, but my net rent is lower, so I'm not going to go there. So capital growth versus cash flow play is now becoming even more and more important in Gold Coast rather than when it was there earlier, right? Is and that's going to be a key driver of what is going to happen. But when I'm looking at all these key drivers, can you maybe tell us what are going to be some key indicators which tell us how the performance are going to be there? What parameters are there which are going to be important for us to see in 27?

Julius

There are few important parameters. First is the population growth. We all know that okay, population growth was strong, but at the same time, it is reaching with that affordability as well. When we say okay, affordability in terms of the renting, buying, is increasing. So whether the population growth will still be the on the same pace where it it can create that additional demand, or population growth will be stabilized. That is number one. Yeah. Number two is basically property listings. So whether the available housing stock will increase or decrease. In a case, if the market fundamental changes and then available housing stock is, for it's stable, it's not increasing. It's fine. That means you have very low stock on market, but there is a high stock on market or high supply. It's not good for the growth. Third is basically the rental market. Yeah. At this stage, there are a lot of the indications are basically if you if you look at the rental market, you have to spend at least $1,000 to rent a house. Yeah. That means to reach up to 30% selling, you have to earn around $190,000.

Julius

So how much, how much that rental growth will be? Because for investors, rental growth are important.

Julius

if the rentals are not growing and if the property prices are growing, then the delta will be higher. Yeah. It can't be investors' market like Sydney. Important thing is interest rates. If interest rates are growing, property prices are growing. How can you afford it?

Julius

So then it will have a new pause to that market, and then the last is basically new supply. When you go towards the towards the Pimpama, Kumara, Pakumera, still there is lot of land supply available, and which is still coming into pipeline. If they release a lot of land at the same time and affordable homes, then that can actually soften a demand into that particular area. So these are most important parameters. So for an example, if I'm a first-time buyer,

Parag Dixit

yeah,

Julius

I look for the affordability, my borrowing capacity. Yeah, how much deposit do I need to have, and then a property type. Do I need to buy apartment? Do I need to buy townhouse or houses and which suburb, according to my calculations, for all of Burquhs gives you lot of stuffs like okay yes lifestyle is there

Parag Dixit

yeah

Julius

if I can upgrade if I have two $3 million I can go to the coastal suburb then what kind of employment opportunities are there whether do they have because we had seen this in the entire podcast yes the employment is diversified there?

Parag Dixit

Yeah, it is, and

Julius

then it's equally distributed in lot of the concentration is not towards a single employment. Then schools, what kind of school do I have? Transport options, and then long-term housing needs. It's not like okay, there are a lot of retirees or investors because in this market, when I look at the investors' proportion, not everywhere, but still in in central Gold Coast or towards the side of the Gold Coast, which way we have the Pimpama Pacific Pine, the investors' proportion is more than 45 to 50% So whether that owner-occupied demand is going to be there or not, and when you are investors, then you have to be a number specific. How much would be the rental income? What are the future capital growth parameters? Then what would be your financing cost? How much would be the property demand and supply? And according to that, which suburb should I select? So these are like kind of mathematics we have to do before we get into that market.

Parag Dixit

Yeah, no, that's that's very fair, and that's that's very good segmentation of the kind of person I am, or what type of a person I am as a first home buyer or investor and owner occupier, and and let me. It's a very good way of explaining what should I be doing and what should I be looking at. But let's go back. Let's go back to our original question, which way we started with. If you are are an investor and you want or an owner occupier and you want to buy a property in Cold Coast in 2027, what should I focus on? Should I focus on the location or the property price or the rental returns, or do I really want to buy below the market value and then rest everything I'll forget about it? Now let me touch upon maybe two key things and then I'll ask you to touch upon the other ones. So if I am wanting to touch on location, I think I I would love to be in the coastal source, right? And if you can get me a house, get me one, please. If I, I would love to buy in an established coastal suburbs, or whether I want to buy in the affordable northern suburbs, or whether I want to buy closer to my employment or infrastructure. All I need to understand my category, like you've explained to me, my choices, my borrowing, my income, my affordability. Can I sustain the investment or sustain my own occupied property? How far am I going to travel? Whether I'm going to travel to all of that bit is going to decide which location do I choose. I can choose any location, but in the end, I should be able to afford that. And that is as soon as I understand my location, I would start understanding clearly what kind of a property I want to get into. When I am looking at all the parameters which you've spoken about, I would be able to easily decide that a house is what I'm able to afford. If I'm able to afford a 1.5 million, which which areas I go to, if maybe northern areas, if I'm able to afford a two two and a half million, maybe the coastal suburbs, where do I go? And that's it. Always comes in based on my budget, my borrowing capacity, and obviously my objectives, right? My goals and no, of course yes.

Julius

For investors, for me, probably I look for the rental returns as well as what is my objective. I'm look. Am I looking for a property which is if my objective is only cash flow positive or immediate rental income or capital growth. If suppose if it is immediate rental income, then that's not the market for you. If it is for the capital growth, yes, there are selected pockets for you where you can make actually a good income. When I'm looking for a rental income, I always have to look at okay. Just don't look at the gross because gross is where okay you don't take out all the expenses. Look for the net income, plus the property price is expensive. So that's why when you look at this kind of net rental income, you need to understand how much is out of pocket expenses. That is number one. Number two is basically what kind of property will I buy versus which suburb will I select because it's a huge diversified market. Your market where okay, your oversupply of apartments. Your market where there'll be possibility of getting lot of land supply. Your market which is in a city which is expensive, which is expensive, but yes, you still have a good land sizes available. Your market which is a coastal, which is very expensive for the owner occupiers. So where to select? What kind of property to select which location of that market do I need to get into to achieve that capital growth? And then future fundamentals.